In any type of normal world, the race for the No. 8 seed in
either Conference wouldn’t matter at all, save for adding some
interest to the final third of the season. In the East, the No.
8 crew will probably draw the Miami Heat in round one, facing
off against the inside-outside twosome of Shaq and D-Wade, who
are poised to bring a big golden trophy to South Beach. It won’t
be pretty.
The picture’s a bit different in the West, though --- the battle
for the No. 8 slot is a tighter affair, and there’s interest
from close NBA watchers. Granted, the last team in draws either
the Spurs or the Suns, and both are going to be hard to knock
off. But --- let’s say Steve Nash’s injuries continue to nag at
him. Let’s also take into account that playoff basketball slows
down and focuses on half-court sets. The Suns suddenly seem
beatable, right? The Spurs are a bit tougher --- they thrive in
half-court sets, and they’re the definition of consistent.
Still, let’s say the Lakers get the No. 8 seed --- a possibility
we’ll investigate. The Lake Show has reached 4 of the last 5
Finals --- granted, with a vastly different chemistry. But Kobe
is still a rare player. Let’s say Minnesota gets in just under
the line --- they were the No. 1 seed last year, and possess
arguably the league’s most game-altering player in Kevin
Garnett. And if the Nuggets --- a young, eccentric mix of
quality players --- get the nod, they might have enough
firepower to run a full series with either San Antonio or
Phoenix.
Since the No. 8 seed in the West could, theoretically, knock off
a potential No. 1, we decided to investigate who’s most likely
to come out as No. 8 in late April. We evaluated only the
Lakers, T-Wolves, and Nuggets, because let’s be honest --- as
good as the Clippers have played this year, do you honestly see
them anywhere near the NBA Playoffs? We thought so.
Each team is assigned 3 (highest), 2, or 1 (lowest) points in
four different categories: Personnel, Coaching, Remaining
Schedule, and Intangibles. Scientific, no?
Personnel: The Lakers have Kobe, who is arguably the best player
in the game. He’s struggled without a presence in the middle (no
offense to Chris Mihm…), and there’s serious strains on his
image following the rape trial and tumultuous breakup of the
championship run Lakers. Beyond Mr. Bryant, though, Los Angeles
doesn’t have much. Caron Butler was promising as a rookie, but
hasn’t done a ton since then. Lamar Odom is the second key to
this team --- he needs to play at the level he’s capable of
playing at, and he hasn’t been doing that. He goes in the tank
more than Vince Carter claims he went in the tank in Canada,
especially against higher-level foes.
The Timberwolves have an amazing team on paper. Garnett, the
reigning MVP, can beat you every which way. Sam Cassell is an
experienced, showstopper point guard, and Latrell Sprewell can
still score in buckets. Wally World gets injured, sure, but he’s
got game. The problem is, the entire team has underachieved this
year, which creates a need for big games from Trenton Hassell
and others. That shouldn’t be necessary given this squad,
especially when Sprewell is playing for 14 million per (even
though he’s apparently below the poverty line).
The Nuggets are good all-around. We’re still waiting for Camby
to tear something, and Nene has been on the injured list since
Valentine’s Day. Carmelo Anthony has slumped a bit in his
sophomore campaign, and he doesn’t play defense much at all.
Earl Boykins has become a star here, regularly pacing the team
in scoring, and Andre Miller --- who must be with his 19th NBA
team by now --- seems to have acquired the poise of a true floor
general, leading this team pretty well on most nights. K-Mart
has been energized by the recent hire of George Karl.
Points: Nuggets 3, T-Wolves 2, Lakers 1
Coaching: Who’s Frank Hamblen? He’s not Rudy T. He’s not Coach
K. He’s not Phil Jackson. In sum, he’s probably not good enough.
Kevin McHale probably shouldn’t have pulled the plug so soon on
Flip Saunders. Saunders was a great coach, and a playoff upset
this year would have re-invigorated his team. Now, McHale’s got
himself on the bench. Let’s consider other 1980s Celtics as
coaches --- ML Carr, Danny Ainge, Larry Bird. Moderate
successes, yes, but are any still coaching? There’s a reason
why… eventually, they all underachieved. Putting an
underachiever with a group of underachievers probably isn’t the
best mix…
George Karl is a savvy veteran coach. You can say all you want
about his conspicuous lack of jewelry, but he’s won 60 games
twice. The Nuggets have never won 60 games. The Nuggets have
been on fire since he got the job from Michael Cooper by way of
Jeff Bzedlik, recently winning six in a row. ‘Melo’s game is
more diverse, more guys are getting quality minutes, and the
team seems to play with a confidence and unity previously
lacking. Karl was the right addition here, even counting rumors
that he might be looking to ship Anthony away for his fear of
playing tight defense.
Points: Nuggets 3, T-Wolves 2, Lakers 1
Remaining Schedule:
The Lakers, who are 20-11 at Staples Center, play only 10 of
their remaining 23 games at home. In addition, they go on a road
trip next week which features games at Dallas, Washington,
Philadelphia, Miami, and Indiana. They end the season with
relative cream puffs Golden State and Portland, but play three
consecutive games right before that against Phoenix, Sacramento,
and Dallas. All of those games are at home, but are still tough
draws.
The Timberwolves, only 17-14 at home this year, play only 9 of
their remaining games at Target Center, and their last two home
games are against Seattle (on pace for 59 wins) and San Antonio
(on pace to win the West). In addition, they have road games at
Phoenix, San Antonio, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Dallas
sprinkled throughout their final month and a half.
The Nuggets are 18-9 at Pepsi Center this year, and play 14 of
their final 23 contests at home. In the final month, they do
travel to Minneapolis, but they also get 2 games against the
Hornets --- the worst team in the league --- and also play
Portland and Golden State, both in the Mile High City. The
Nuggets also draw the Grizzlies twice in the final three weeks.
While the Grizz are playoff-bound themselves, it’s a favorable
match-up for a streaking Denver squad.
Points: Nuggets 3, Lakers 2, Timberwolves 1
Intangibles Kobe needs to reach the playoffs as a No. 8 seed,
score 50 points every night, and off the No. 1 team in the West.
In some ways, it would help restore his credibility and erase
notions he can’t do it without Shaq. Also, it might help Frank
Hamblen not become an assistant again next year.
The Timberwolves need to prove their 2003-2004 campaign was no
joke, and some of their contract year players could benefit from
the extra playing time and bigger stage of the playoffs.
The Nuggets are young, and aren’t expected to do much besides
make the playoffs. They have a determined team and a determined
coach, but aside from Anthony keeping pace with LeBron (who’s
probably going to make the playoffs this year), the team doesn’t
have a ton to prove right now.
Points: Lakers 3, Timberwolves 2, Nuggets 1
The Final Score: Nuggets 10, Timberwolves 7, Lakers 7
Karl’s bunch is streaking, all right --- straight into a
first-round date with the best of the West.
About the author:
Seth Berkman writes for
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